Boeing has slightly adjusted its long-term outlook for commercial aircraft demand, paring back its projections for wide-body aircraft by 250 units in its latest 20-year forecast.
Released 14th June, the 2025 commercial Market Outlook (CMO) attributes this minor revision, less than a 1% overall decrease from last year’s figures, primarily to a slower-than-expected recovery in long-haul air travel post-pandemic and persistent geopolitical tensions.
Despite this subtle recalibration, Boeing maintains a confident stance on the industry’s future, forecasting a robust demand for 43,600 new aircraft, encompassing freighters and passenger jets with 30 or more seats, between now and 2044. This projection represents a slight dip from the 43,975 jets anticipated in its 2024 report.
The reduction in the forecast predominantly impacts wide body aircraft with the updated outlook calling for 7,815 wide bodies by 2044, a decrease from the previous estimate of 8,065. Demand for single-aisle jets now saw a minor reduction to 33,285 (down by 95), and freighters demand is projected to see a slight increase of 20, reaching 1,545.
Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice-president of commercial marketing, characterized the 3% downward shift in widebody demand as “relatively minor.” He acknowledged that the recovery in long-haul travel has indeed been slower than initially foreseen, and highlighted geopolitical risks as contributing factors to these revisions. Nevertheless, Hulst expressed constant optimism, expecting long-haul air traffic to double within the next two decades.
Geographically, Boeing anticipates that approximately 20% of these new aircraft deliveries will be directed towards key markets including China, Eurasia, North America, and South and Southeast Asia. The remaining balance is expected to be distributed across customers in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, Northeast Asia, and Oceana.
The global fleet of cargo and passenger jets (with over 30 seats) currently stands at 27,150. Boeing’s projections suggest significant fleet expansion, with an estimated 21,100 existing aircraft being replaced and an additional 22,500 acquired for growth by 2044. This scenario envisions a 3.1% annual increase in the global fleet, reaching a substantial 49,640 aircraft – an 83% surge from today’s numbers.
These ambitious predictions are underpinned by Boeing’s economic assumptions, including an average annual global economic growth of 2.3% over the next two decades. During this period, global passenger air traffic is projected to jump 4.2% annually and air cargo traffic by 3.7% annually. The manufacturer firmly believes that rapidly expanding emerging markets in regions such as Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East will serve as primary engines for this growth.
However, the 2025 CMO also addresses ongoing industry challenges, notably persistent supply chain and labor shortages that continue to impede aircraft manufacturers’ ability to fully meet demand. Hulst revealed that airlines are currently experiencing a deficit of approximately 1,200 single-aisle and 300 widebody jets, noting that current production rates are roughly half of pre-pandemic levels (2015-2018).
The report further sheds light on significant shifts observed within the aviation industry over recent decades. Global passenger air traffic has remarkably tripled in the last 25 years, while the total number of aircraft in service has doubled. Additionally, the average number of seats on narrowbody jets has increased, and the market share held by the top 10 airlines has decreased, a trend partly attributed to the expansion of air travel in emerging markets.
